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Interesting to see that on these boundaries Labor would have lost here especially how the incumbent member retired in 2013.
This is the Greens most targeted seat in WA – Patrick Gorman isn’t very popular and quite bland as HOR member. Sophie Greer has a decent shot at picking this seat but if Labor falls in the post-McGowan landscape. If not 2025 than 2027/28 cycle.
CG,
Not in 2025, Perth is like Macnamara a three way contest as the margin here is definitely inflated here due to Labor’s outstanding results. I expect Liberal and Greens to increase their primary vote but the Greens to remain in third place.
Greens wouldn’t be unhappy with their returns in overlapping state seats but in all of them Labor is way, way out in front on primaries. Haven’t heard great things about Gorman as a local member but not seeing how Labor falls into 3rd. The time for Greens to win this seat will be in a low tide election for Labor where Liberals are getting north of 40% primary here, barring a scenario where Greens get Liberals preferences.